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2006 OSCAR PREDICTIONS PREDICTION RATE: 17 for 24 [71%] / 7 out of 8 [88%] in the major categories SEE HOW WELL (or UNWELL) I PREDICTED THE NOMINEES 2004 OSCAR PAGE           2005 OSCAR PAGE OSCAR SHOWDOWN OTHER AWARDS PREDIX SITES: EVERYTHING OSCAR / OSCAR IGLOO / OSCAR JAM / AWARDSPECULATION OSCAR CENTRAL / AND THE OSCAR GOES TO / THE FILM EXPERIENCE / IN CONTENTION

BEST PICTURE
The Departed	Babel	Letters From Iwo Jima	The Queen	Little Miss Sunshine
4/5 [80%] NOMINATION PREDICTION RATE missed Letters From Iwo Jima / picked Dreamgirls instead (glad I was wrong)
who should win: Letters From Iwo Jima who will win: So many are saying Little Miss Sunshine could upset the "big dogs" here, but I am still going with The Departed to take the top prize, though never count out that damned Babel, and who knows Little Miss Sunshine could end up pulling this off.
and the Oscar goes to... The Departed

BEST DIRECTOR
Martin Scorsese for The Departed	Alejandro González Iñárritu for Babel	Clint Eastwood for Letters From Iwo Jima	Stephen Frears for The Queen	Paul Greengrass for United 93
4/5 [80%] NOMINATION PREDICTION RATE missed Eastwood / picked Condon instead (glad I was wrong again)
who should win: Paul Greengrass gave us the most emotionally artistic film of the year, although Scorsese is (obviously) in dire need of an Oscar - even if it is for one of his lesser films. who will win: It looks as if Martin Scorsese will finally get his Oscar (which he probably should have already won for Taxi Driver, Raging Bull and/or Goodfellas. Clint could surprise Marty, he has before, but doubtful this time around.
and the Oscar goes to... Marty Scorsese -- finally !!!

BEST ACTRESS
Penélope Cruz in Volver	Judi Dench in Notes on a Scandal	Helen Mirren in The Queen	Meryl Streep in The Devil Wears Prada	Kate Winslet in Little Children
5/5 [100%] NOMINATION PREDICTION RATE
who should win: This was a tough decision, for I enjoyed all five performances (the only category I can say that about), but I suppose I would pick Kate Winslet slightly over Meryl. who will win: Duh. This is Helen Mirren's Oscar. No doubt in anyone's mind. She is the Queen.
and the Oscar goes to... Helen Mirren -- of course

BEST ACTOR
Leonardo DiCaprio in Blood Diamond	Ryan Gosling in Half Nelson	Peter O'Toole in Venus	Will Smith in The Pursuit of Happyness	Forest Whitaker in The Last King of Scotland
4/5 [80%] NOMINATION PREDICTION RATE picked DiCaprio for the wrong film (is this only half wrong?)
who should win: Although I was surprisingly thrilled by DiCaprio, and Whitaker gives abravura performance, it was Ryan Gosling who shone the brightest this past year. who will win: Forest Whitaker. Though there is the slightest chance of O'Toole grabbing this up, it is highly unlikely.
and the Oscar goes to... Forest Whitaker -- don't cry Peter

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Adriana Barazza in Babel	Cate Blanchett in Notes on a Scandal	Abigail Breslin in Little Miss Sunshine	Jennifer Hudson in Dreamgirls	Rinko Kikuchi in Babel
5/5 [100%] NOMINATION PREDICTION RATE
who should win: I would hand the Oscar to Rinko Kikuchi, though Blanchett and Barazza also give great performances. who will win: This will go to Jennifer Hudson - unless Simon Cowell gets to vote.
and the Oscar goes to... I still agree with Simon Cowell, but Jennifer Hudson

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Djimon Hounsou in Blood Diamond	Alan Arkin in Little Miss Sunshine	Jackie Earle Haley in Little Children	Eddie Murphy in Dreamgirls	Mark Wahlberg in The Departed
3/5 [60%] NOMINATION PREDICTION RATE missed Honsou & Wahlberg / picked Affleck & Jack instead
who should win: I would love to see Jackie Earle Haley take this award. He was incredible in Little Childen. who will win: The only acting category that doesn't seem to be sewn up yet. Most pundants are split between Murphy and Arkin. I personally am going with Eddie Murphy (in a last minute cahnage from Mr. Arkin), though a win by Arkin (or Mark Wahlberg for that matter) would not be a surprise at all.
and the Oscar goes to... Alan Arkin -- a last minute switch to Murphy was a mistake indeed.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Babel	Little Miss Sunshine	Pan's Labyrinth	The Queen	Letters From Iwo Jima
4/5 [80%] NOMINATION PREDICTION RATE missed Letters From Iwo Jima / picked Stranger Than Fiction instead
who should win: I really wasn't impressed by any of these screenplays, even Letters thrilled me more on visual technique than anything else, but I suppose I would pick Letters From Iwo Jima after all. who will win: Little Miss Sunshine should win this, though The Queen has nearly a good of a shot at the gold.
and the Oscar goes to... Little Miss Sunshine

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Children of Men	The Departed	Borat	Little Children	Notes on a Scandal
3/5 [60%] NOMINATION PREDICTION RATE missed Borat & Notes on a Scandal / picked Devil Wears Prada & Thank You For Smoking instead
who should win: I suppose I would pick Little Children over Notes on a Scandal and The Departed. who will win: Considering it is the only BP nominee in the running, The Departed should take this. Look for a slim possibility of Borat surprising though.
and the Oscar goes to... The Departed

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
The Black Dahlia	Children of Men	The Illusionist	Pan's Labyrinth	The Prestige
3/5 [60%] NOMINATION PREDICTION RATE missed Black Dahlia & The Prestige / picked Apocalypto & Babel instead
who should win: Children of Men who will win: Children of Men
and the Oscar goes to... Pan's Labyrinth -- whattt !!??

BEST ART DIRECTION
The Good Shepherd	Pirates of the Caribbean	Dreamgirls	The Prestige	Pan's Labyrinth
3/5 [60%] NOMINATION PREDICTION RATE missed The Good Shepherd & The Prestige / picked Children of Men & Marie Antoinette instead
who should win: Pan's Labyrinth who will win: Pan's Labyrinth
and the Oscar goes to... Pan's Labyrinth

BEST FILM EDITING
Babel	The Departed	Children of Men	Blood Diamond	United 93
3/5 [60%] NOMINATION PREDICTION RATE missed Blood Diamond & Children of Men / picked The Queen & Dreamgirls instead
who should win: United 93 who will win: This is possibly the tightest race of the night, but I believe The Departed will take it in the end, but Babel could very easily do it instead. Remember also that 9 times out of 10, the winner of this award will also take BP (sorry Little Miss...).
and the Oscar goes to... The Departed

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Curse of the Golden Flower	The Devil Wears Prada	Dreamgirls	Marie Antoinette	The Queen
4/5 [80%] NOMINATION PREDICTION RATE missed The Queen / picked The Painted Veil instead
who should win: Marie Antoinette, my second favourite film of last year, definately deserves more than just this one nomination. who will win: Most pundants say Dreamgirls is the sensible choice, and conventional wisdom says this film - being the top nominated film of the bunch - should get a few wins, but my love for Sofia Coppola's film forces my hand here and I will go with Marie Antoinette. Also, if Dreamgirls take both supporting nods and Sound and Song, then a fifth award is unlikely (though it could win this and lose Song and boy am I confused now). Ahhh!! sod it all, I'm going with Dreamgirls!!
and the Oscar goes to... I suppose I should have stuck with my heart here, as Marie Antoinette wins.

BEST MAKE-UP
Apacalypto	Pan's Labyrinth	Click
2/3 [67%] NOMINATION PREDICTION RATE missed Click (?) / picked Pirates instead
who should win: Pan's Labyrinth who will win: Pan's Labyrinth
and the Oscar goes to... Pan's Labyrinth

BEST SOUND MIXING
Apocalypto	Blood Diamond	Flags of Our Fathers	Dreamgirls	Pirates of the Caribbean
3/5 [60%] NOMINATION PREDICTION RATE missed Flags & Apocalypto / picked Babel & Departed instead
who should win: Flags of Our Fathers who will win: Dreamgirls
and the Oscar goes to... Dreamgirls

BEST SOUND EFFECTS EDITING
Apocalypto	The Blood Diamond	Flags of Our Fathers	Pirates of the Caribbean	Letters From Iwo Jima
2/5 [40%] NOMINATION PREDICTION RATE missed Apocalypto, Blood Diamond & Iwo Jima / picked Cars, Departed & Superman instead
who should win: Letters From Iwo Jima who will win: Letters From Iwo Jima, although Flags and Iwo Jima could cancel each other out and hand the award to Pirates.
and the Oscar goes to... Letters From Iwo Jima

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Pirates of the Caribbean	Superman Returns	Poseidon
2/3 [67%] NOMINATION PREDICTION RATE missed Poseidon / picked X-Men instead
who should win: Superman Returns who will win: Pirates of the Caribbean
and the Oscar goes to... Pirates of the Caribbean

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Babel	The Good German	Pan's Labyrinth	Notes on a Scandal	The Queen
2/5 [40%] NOMINATION PREDICTION RATE missed Good German, Pan & The Queen / picked Painted Veil, DaVinci & The Fountain instead
who should win: Babel who will win: The Queen
and the Oscar goes to... Babel

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Cars	Dreamgirls	Dreamgirls	Dreamgirls	An Inconvenient Truth
2/5 [40%] NOMINATION PREDICTION RATE missed Cars & the other 2 Dreamgirls songs / picked Bobby, Happy Feet & Little Miss Sunshine instead
who should win: An Inconvenient Truth who will win: I think the three nods from Dreamgirls may end up cancelling each other out and the award will go to Melissa and her song from An Inconvenient Truth. Was that a mistake ??
and the Oscar goes to... An Inconvenient Truth -- way to go beating out those three one-note Dreamgirls banalities !!!

BEST FOREIGN-LANGUAGE FILM
After the Wedding	Days of Glory	The Lives of Others	Pan's Labyrinth	Water
4/5 [80%] NOMINATION PREDICTION RATE missed After the Wedding / picked Volver instead (not nominated!? what!!?)
who should win: Pan's Labyrinth who will win: The obvious choice is Pan's Labyrinth, though The Lives of Others could easily surprise here and that is my pick (I guess I am brave after all).
and the Oscar goes to... Lives of Others

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Cars	Happy Feet	Monster House
3/3 [100%] NOMINATION PREDICTION RATE missed nothing
who should win: Did not see any of them. I hate most modern CGI animation. Give me hand drawings anytime. who will win: Cars
and the Oscar goes to... Cars

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Deliver Us From Evil	An Inconvenient Truth	Jesus Camp	My Country, My Country	Iraq In Fragments
4/5 [80%] NOMINATION PREDICTION RATE missed My Country, My Country / picked that Dixie Chick thing instead
who should win: Have not seen any of these. Not a big Doc person. Sorry. who will win: An Inconvenient Truth
and the Oscar goes to... An Inconvenient Truth

BEST ANIMATED SHORT
The Danish Poet	Lifted	The Little Match Girl	Maestro	No Time for Nuts
4/5 [80%] NOMINATION PREDICTION RATE missed Maestro / picked One Rat Short instead
who should win: ??? who will win: The Little Match Girl (or maybe The Danish Poet)
and the Oscar goes to... The Danish Poet

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT
Binta and the Great Idea	One Too Many	Helmer & Son	The Saviour	West Bank Story
NO NOMINATION PREDICTION RATE / DID NOT PREDICT THIS CATEGORY
who should win: ??? who will win: Binta and the Great Idea (or maybe West Bank Story)
and the Oscar goes to... West Bank Story

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
Blood of Yingzhou District	Recycled Life	Rehearsing a Dream	Two Hands
NO NOMINATION PREDICTION RATE / DID NOT PREDICT THIS CATEGORY
who should win: ??? who will win: Blood of Yingzhou District
and the Oscar goes to... Blood of Yingzhou District

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