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2005 NBR PREDIX & AWARDS PREDICTION RATE: 5 for 17 (aaaaaaaahhhhhhh!!!) Last year I went 3 for 15 JUST LIKE IN THE WORLD OF POLITICS: CORRECT PREDICTIONS IN BLUE / INCORRECT PREDICTIONS IN RED

THE TOP 10 MOTION PICTURES OF 2005
	1. Good Night, and Good Luck.
	Brokeback Mountain
	Capote
	Crash
	A History of Violence
	Match Point
	Memoirs of a Geisha
	Munich
	Syriana
	Walk the Line
AWARDS COMMENTS: Although I missed number one, I did get 8 out of 10 right here. (numbers 2 thru 10 are listed alphabetically this year instead of preferentially) missing Syriana and Match Point in place of Sin City and King Kong. MY PREDICTIONS: The NBR usually go gayer (so to speak) than most, so I am going that route as well with my predictions. They also like to toss in a few possible hits (hence King Kong and Sin City). Meanwhile, their number one film is usually a film getting released right about at announcement time (Brokeback Mountain, Memoirs of A Geisha, Syriana). The Top 10 will be: 1. Brokeback Mountain / 2. Capote / 3. Memoirs of A Geisha / 4. Munich / 5. A History of Violence / 6. Good Night, and Good Luck / 7. Crash / 8. King Kong / 9. Walk the Line / 10. Sin City alternates could be: Match Point, Cinderella Man, The Constant Gardener, Rent and/or Syriana.

BEST DIRECTOR	BEST ACTRESS	BEST ACTOR	BEST SUPP ACTRESS	BEST SUPP ACTOR
Ang Lee, Brokeback Mountain	Felicity Huffman, Transamerica	Philip Seymour Hoffman, Capote	Gong Li, Memoirs of a Geisha	Jake Gyllenhaal, Brokeback Mountain
PREDIX: Since the NBR tends to surprise in this category, I am going with David Cronenberg (A History of Violence) here, even though he probably will be an Oscar nominee this year, so I suppose it isn't much of a surprise. Alternate choices include Ang Lee for Brokeback and Woody Allen for Match Point.	PREDIX: Keeping with the sexually controversial history of the NBR, I am choosing Felicity Huffman in Transamerica. Alternates would be Reese Witherspoon in Walk the Line or Joan Allen in both Yes and The Upside of Anger. This is probably the toughest call. It could easily be any of these women and let's not forget Keira Knightly in Pride & Prejudice.	PREDIX: This could be the first in many precurser wards for Philip Seymour Hoffman in Capote. His character fits the alternative perspective of the NBR. Otherwise it could be Ralph Fiennes (Constant Gardener/White Countess) or Jeff Daniels in The Squid & The Whale (my personal fave), but let's not forget the career defining performance of Heath Ledger in Brokeback Mountain. In fact he may be the one...no, I'm sticking with Hoffman dammit.	PREDIX: There is usually a surprise somewhere in the acting choices, so with that said, I'm naming Gong Li from Memoirs of A Geisha for the win here. Other strong possibilities would be Scarlett Johansson (Match Point) or Michelle Williams (Brokeback) or Maria Bello (Violence).	PREDIX: I believe this is finally Matt Dillon's (Crash) year. He's been flying under the radar for so long with great performances in little seen films. Although Bob Hoskins (Mrs. Henderson) or Paul Giamatti (Cinderella Man) could grab this up.

THE TOP 5 FOREIGN FILMS OF 2005
	1. Paradise Now
	Balzac and the Little Chinese Seamstress
	Downfall
	2046
	Walk on Water
MY PREDICTIONS: 1. 2046 / 2. Paradise Now / 3. Brodre / 4. Tsotsi / 5. Nobody Knows ...but the posibilities are nearly endless... Walk on Water, Kings & Queen, Cache, Oldboy, The War Within, 5x2, Saraband...

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY	BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY	BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN	BEST MUSIC COMPOSITION	BEST ENSEMBLE CAST
The Squid & the Whale	Syriana	none given	A History of Violence	Mrs. Henderson Presents
PREDIX: Match Point Alternative: Crash	PREDIX: The Constant Gardener Alternative: Munich or Capote	PREDIX: Memoirs of A Geisha Alternative: The New World or King Kong	PREDIX: Danny Elfman for Corpse Bride and Charlie & the Choco. Factory Alternative: Memoirs of A Geisha	PREDIX: Crash Alternative: Syriana

THE TOP 5 DOCUMENTARIES OF 2005
	1. March of the Penguins
	Ballets Russes
	Grizzly Man
	Mad Hot Ballroom
	Murderball
MY PREDICTIONS: 1. March of the Penguins / 2. Murderball / 3. Grizzly Man / 4. Mad Hot Ballroom / 5. Enron Alternatives: Rize and/or After Innocence

BEST BREAKTHROUGH / FEMALE	BEST BREAKTHROUGH / MALE	BEST DIRECTORIAL DEBUT	BEST ANIMATED FILM	CAREER ACHIEVEMENT	SPECIAL ACHIEVEMENT IN FILMMAKING
Q'Orianka Kilcher, The New World	Terrence Howard, Hustle & Flow	Julian Fellowes, Seperate Lies	none given	Jane Fonda	David Cronenberg
PREDIX: Amy Adams in Junebug, although they could name Keira Knightly (even though she has already "broken through").	PREDIX: Terrance Howard in both Crash and Hustle & Flow, although Cillian Murphy would be a viable choice.	PREDIX: Miranda July for Me and You and Everyone We Know, although Bennet Miller for Capote may make the cut instead or Paul Haggis for Crash.	PREDIX: Wallace & Gromit is the surer bet here, but Corpse Bride could go too.	PREDIX: Jeff Daniels should be here, as Jeff Bridges was last year. Perhaps this will erase my mind of Dumb & Dumber. Although Cronenberg, if not named Best Director, could get this instead.	PREDIX: George Clooney for writing, directing, producing and starring in Good Night, and Good Luck (and for Syriana too?)

FREEDOM OF EXPRESSION AWARD
Innocent Voices	The Untold Story of Emmett Till
MY PREDICTIONS: (This is thier political/sociological category) Syriana, Paradise Now, The Constant Gardener

SPECIAL MENTION FOR EXCELLENCE IN FILMMAKING
Breakfast on Pluto	Cape of Good Hope	The Dying Gaul	Everything is Illuminated
Hustle & Flow	Junebug	Layer Cake	Lord of War
Nine Lives	The Thing About My Folks	The Upside of Anger	-
MY PREDICTIONS: (This is their "Indie" or smaller film category...sort of) Me and You and Everyone We Know, Junebug, The Dying Gaul, Broken Flowers, The Squid & the Whale, Transamerica, Mysterious Skin, Happy Endings, The War Within, My Summer of Love, Hustle & Flow, 40 Shades of Blue, Sarah Silverman: Jesus is Magic, Somersault, The Ballad of Jack & Rose also: A History of Violence, Capote, Good Night... or Crash could be "lowered" to this category.

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