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SUMMER 2005
BOX OFFICE
PREDICTIONS
New Reviews * Top 5 Project * Top 10 Project

Here I go again...my annual (since last year) attempt at predicting what films will be the big "winners" at the box office over that ever-important (at least to the moneylenders/takers of Hollywoodland) Summer season.

I know what you're thinking...what the hell do I care about the Hollywood war machine cash cow industry - being a tried & true Cinephiliac!? Well I don't really, but I sure do love making lists and predictions, and since this combines both of those OCD symptoms...here we go again.

The idea is simple...I'll predict what the top twenty-five moneymakers will be for the Summer and on Labour Day weekend, we'll all see how bad I did (see my rather lame-ended attempt from last year if you want to know how bad I am at this).

The rules are simple too...for films to be considered eligible, they must open between May 1, 2005 and September 2, 2005 (which means The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy is ineligible due to its original release date of May 6 being upped to April 29).

Comments can be read below the chart, with the most recent first.

Films highlighted in Democrat BLUE are successful picks (or look as if they will be by Labour Day), while films highlighted in Republican RED are bad predictions (or at least look as if they will be when all is said and done), or are films I didn't even pick to place. Films in BLACK have yet to open.

MY PREDICTED BOX OFFICE TAKE:
  1. Star Wars Episode III: ROTS ($444 mil)
  2. Madagascar ($277 mil)
  3. War of the Worlds ($224 mil)
  4. Batman Begins ($211 mil)
  5. Mr. & Mrs. Smith ($177 mil)
  6. The Longest Yard ($167 mil)
  7. Dark Water ($136 mil)
  8. Bad News Bears ($124 mil)
  9. Kicking & Screaming ($113 mil)
  10. Charlie & the Choc. Factory ($109 mil)
  11. The Honeymooners ($104 mil)
  12. Cinderella Man ($101 mil)
  13. Kingdom of Heaven ($99 mil)
  14. Monster-in-Law ($92 mil)
  15. Lords of Dogtown ($87 mil)
  16. The Island ($72 mil)
  17. Herbie: Fully Loaded ($67 mil)
  18. Stealth ($64 mil)
  19. Red Eye ($63 mil)
  20. The Dukes of Hazzard ($59 mil)
  21. Bewitched ($57 mil)
  22. Brothers Grimm ($55 mil)
  23. Unleashed ($54 mil)
  24. The Fantastic Four ($52 mil)
  25. The Skeleton Key ($50 mil)
ACTUAL BOX OFFICE (as of 8/1)
  1. Star Wars Episode III: ROTS ($378 mil)
  2. War of the Worlds ($225 mil)
  3. Batman Begins ($199 mil)
  4. Madagascar ($189 mil)
  5. Mr. & Mrs. Smith ($181 mil)
  6. Charlie & the Choco Factory ($173 mil)
  7. The Longest Yard ($156 mil)
  8. Wedding Crashers ($148 mil)
  9. Fantastic Four ($145 mil)
  10. Monster-in-Law ($82 mil)
  11. Herbie: Fully Loaded ($63 mil)
  12. Bewitched ($61 mil)
  13. Cinderella Man ($60 mil)
  14. Kicking & Screaming ($52 mil)
  15. Crash ($52 mil)
  16. Kingdom of Heaven ($47 mil)
  17. Dukes of Hazzard ($38 mil)
  18. Adv / Sharkboy & Lavagirl ($38 mil)
  19. Sisterhood / Traveling Pants ($38 mil)
  20. Sky High ($34 mil)
  21. House of Wax ($32 mil)
  22. The Island ($31 mil)
  23. Bad News Bears ($29 mil)
  24. March of the Penguins ($28 mil)
  25. Must Love Dogs ($28 mil)
bubblin' under
  • Stealth ($26 mil)
  • Unleashed ($24 mil)
  • Dark Water ($24 mil)
  • Land of the Dead ($20 mil)
  • Hustle & Flow ($19 mil)
  • Rebound ($16 mil)
  • The Perfect Man ($16 mil)
  • The Devil's Rejects ($15 mil)
  • The Honeymooners ($12 mil)
  • Lords of Dogtown ($11 mil)


August 3:

I did a hell of a lot better than last year. Sure, number 1 was a given (although I somewhat overestimated its final take), but I also scored well with War of the Worlds, Batman Begins and Mr. & Mrs. Smith - as well as coming relatively close with Madagascar (at least in placement, if not in dollars) and The Longest Yard. Charlie overdid what I expected, and it doesn't look like Dark Water or Bad News Bears are going to reach my original estimates. Big misses include Fantastic Four (even though a childhood favourite, I really didn't think it would be much of a hit), Kicking & Screaming, Unleashed, Cinderella Man (which I'm glad about), The Honeymooners (which I'm really glad about) and Kingdom of Heaven (although I did aim lower than most pundants with this one, it still underdid even my conservative estimate). Some films that I didn't even have on my predictions list were Wedding Crashers, (just plain) Crash, Shark Boy/Lava Girl and that Traveling Pants movie. Overall (especially compared with last year's results) not too shabby - at least in the top 10 part of the list (I blew it in the bottom part). Dukes of Hazzard opens tomorrow.....yikes (for so many different reasons)

July 3:

Still relatively on track - Star Wars and Madagascar are not going to reach my estimates, but should still be close. War of the Worlds may end up being number two instead of my predicted third place. Other than the surprises mentioned in my last update, everything seems to be running smoothly...so far.

June 17:

So far I'm not doing too bad. It looks like Star Wars, Longest Yard, Madagascar and Mr. & Mrs. Smith will pretty much hit their targets (and Batman looks promising after its opening weekend too). Luckily I chose to place Kingdom of Heaven a lot lower than most pundits, although my 99 million may still be too high a goal for that film to reach. There were a couple of surprises too, with both the Sisterhood and that shark/lava movie doing surprisingly well at the B.O.. My two big misses - and I am thankful for these films not being hits - were Lords of Dogtown and The Honeymooners (wow!! - The Honeymooners may end up being on a hell of a lot of worst ten lists come December). Well, that's it for now. Herbie starts on the 22nd, Bewitched on the 24th and War of the Worlds opens on the 29th. C U then...

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