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2005 OSCAR PREDICTIONS

PICTURE * DIRECTOR * ACTOR * ACTRESS * SUP ACTOR * SUP ACTRESS * SCREENPLAYS TECHNICAL 1 * TECHNICAL 2 * FOREIGN-LANGUAGE * OTHER CATEGORIES MAIN NOMINATION PREDICTION PAGE YEAR-IN-ADVANCE PREDICTIONS           LAST YEAR'S OSCAR PREDICTIONS MAIN OSCAR PAGE / ACTUAL NOMINATIONS OTHER AWARDS: GOLDEN GLOBES / NBR / LAFCA / NYFCC 4/5 [80%] PREDICTION RATE CORRECT PREDICTIONS IN BLUE / INCORRECT PREDICTIONS IN RED

BEST PICTURE NOMINATION PREDICTIONS
POST-NOMINATION COMMENTS: OK, so maybe Munich didn't fall by the wayside. In truth though, it is the one film in the line-up that I am most upset with. It wasn't a bad movie, just mediocre, which I suppose is better than last year, when there were three films that I panned, one I thought of as mediocre and just one genuinely enjoyable film. This year we get just one mediocrity and four good films - including (dare I say) one great film even. Overall, I believe it is going to come down to two films in the end: up-til-now frontrunner Brokeback Mountain and young upstart Crash. We'll see on March 5th. FINAL PREDICTION COMMENTS: With Munich falling by the wayside, this was probably the easiest category to pick for me.
1. (1)(1)(1)(1)(1)(1)(4)(5)(-) BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN	2. (4)(7)(5)(5)(5)(8)(30)(26)(-) CRASH	3. (2)(2)(2)(3)(2)(2)(10)(16)(-) GOOD NIGHT AND, GOOD LUCK	4. (3)(9)(12)(9)(7)(6)(9)(19)(-) CAPOTE	5. (5)(3)(4)(4)(4)(4)(5)(4)(5) WALK THE LINE
Another possibility: 6.(6)(4)(3)(2)(3)(3)(1)(1)(1) MUNICH Other darkhorses that could make good, but doubtful: 7.(7)(8)(9)(18)(22)(23)(23)(21)(-) THE CONSTANT GARDENER 8.(9)(11)(10)(10)(12)(13)(27)(23)(-) CINDERELLA MAN Longshots, some of which may just be wishful thinking: 9.(8)(6)(6)(7)(6)(5)(6)(6)(-) MATCH POINT 10.(10)(10)(13)(14)(13)(12)(7)(10)(-) A HISTORY OF VIOLENCE 11.(12)(12)(11)(11)(14)(17)(-)(-)(-) PRIDE & PREJUDICE 12.(13)(13)(7)(8)(11)(10)(13)(9)(3) THE NEW WORLD 13.(11)(5)(8)(13)(20)(18)(20)(20)(-) KING KONG Nothing more than vote siphoners and/or better luck next year: ---(14)(18)(17)(17)(24)(29)(-)(-) THE SQUID & THE WHALE ---(15)(14)(15)(15)(15)(15)(-)(-) SYRIANA ---(16)(15)(12)(10)(9)(16)(13)(-) THE PRODUCERS ---(17)(16)(6)(8)(11)(3)(3)(2) MEMOIRS OF A GEISHA ---(18)(17)(16)(9)(7)(19)(17)(-) MRS. HENDERSON PRESENTS ---(19)(19)(18)(20)(26)(22)(-) THE FAMILY STONE ---(20)(20)(16)(14)(11)(-) THE THREE BURIALS OF MELQUIADES ESTRADA ---(21)(21)(21)(-)(-)(-)(-) THE CHRONICLES OF NARNIA ---(22)(23)(21)(2)(2)(4) JARHEAD ---(23)(19)(16)(18)(15)(-) THE WHITE COUNTESS ---(24)(25)(19)(-)(-)(-) BREAKFAST ON PLUTO ---(25)(28)(27)(24)(24)(-) RENT ---(26)(24)(22)(8)(12)(-) NORTH COUNTRY ---(27)(26)(25)(21)(27)(-) IN HER SHOES ---(28)(29)(28)(25)(-)(-) BEE SEASON ---(29)(30)(29)(28)(25)(-) BROKEN FLOWERS ---(30)(27)(26)(22)(18)(-) PROOF ---(31)(31)(30)(11)(8)(-) ELIZABETHTOWN ---(32)(32)(31)(17)(14)(-) OLIVER TWIST Moved to a 2006 release date: ---(12)(7)(-) ALL THE KING'S MEN
NEXT TO FINAL PREDICTIONS / JANUARY 15
CAPOTE	BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN	GOOD NIGHT, AND GOOD LUCK	CRASH	WALK THE LINE
PRE-XMAS PREDICTIONS / DECEMBER 16
MUNICH	BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN	GOOD NIGHT, AND GOOD LUCK	KING KONG	WALK THE LINE
PRE-NBR PREDICTIONS / DECEMBER 10
MUNICH	BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN	GOOD NIGHT, AND GOOD LUCK	CRASH	WALK THE LINE
PRE-NBR PREDICTIONS / DECEMBER 6
MUNICH	BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN	GOOD NIGHT, AND GOOD LUCK	CRASH	WALK THE LINE
END OF NOVEMBER PREDICTIONS / NOVEMBER 30
MUNICH	BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN	GOOD NIGHT, AND GOOD LUCK	CRASH	WALK THE LINE
THANKSGIVING PREDICTIONS / NOVEMBER 24
MUNICH	BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN	GOOD NIGHT, AND GOOD LUCK	MATCH POINT	WALK THE LINE
OCTOBER PREDICTIONS / OCTOBER 9
MUNICH	BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN	JARHEAD	MEMOIRS OF A GEISHA	WALK THE LINE
A MONTH PAST HALFWAY MARK PREDICTIONS / SEPTEMBER 18
MUNICH	BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN	JARHEAD	MEMOIRS OF A GEISHA	WALK THE LINE
HALFWAY MARK PREDICTIONS / AUGUST 18
MUNICH	THE NEW WORLD	JARHEAD	MEMOIRS OF A GEISHA	WALK THE LINE
YEAR-IN-ADVANCE PREDICTIONS / FEBRUARY 26
THE PRODUCERS	THE NEW WORLD	CINDERELLA MAN	MEMOIRS OF A GEISHA	WALK THE LINE

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