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2004 NBR PREDICTIONS

3 for 15 - What a lousy prediction attempt !!! Finding Neverland as Best Film ??? For a film that is about a man whose very existence was based on a vivid imagination, this was one of the least imaginative films of the year - formulaic, uninspired, mediocre at best (its only saving graces were its performances) - see my review for what I really thought - but then, A Beautiful Mind won the Oscar in 2001, and it was no more or less mediocre itself - But the big thing that bugs me (other than only gonig 3/15 in my predictions - am I obsessing?) is how boring these awards were - not one real surprise (remember Edward Zwick for Best Director last year ? or Campbell Scott for Best Actor in 2002 ?) - But Topher Grace was a bit of a surprise, so I guess we get one - anyway, here are my predictions (from Nov. 28) followed by the actual winner in each category... Top Ten Films of 2004 Predictions: 1. Kinsey 2. Closer 3. Phantom of The Opera 4. Eternal Sunshine of The Spotless Mind 5. Sideways 6. The Aviator 7. Hotel Rwanda 8. Before Sunset 9. Ray 10. The Door in The Floor Actual Winners: 1. Finding Neverland 2. The Aviator 3. Closer 4. Million Dollar Baby 5. Sideways 6. Kinsey 7. Vera Drake 8. Ray 9. Collateral 10. Hotel Rwanda Only picked six of the top ten - but totally blew it on Finding Neverland for the top spot (What the hell was the NBR thinking, with putting a shallow sapfest like that at number one? - oh well) - as for the others, I had thought of putting both Million Dollar Baby and Vera Drake on, but never even guessed at Collateral - Still did better than last year (I think I picked four right) Top Five Foreign Films of 2004 Predictions: 1. Bad Education 2. Maria Full of Grace 3. A Very Long Engagement 4. The Motorcycle Diaries 5. The Sea Inside Actual Winners: 5. The Sea Inside 1. Bad Education 2. Maria Full of Grace 3. Les Choristes 4. The Motorcycle Diaries Did better here - 4/5, but still blew it on number 1 Best Director Prediction: Joel Schumacher for Phantom of The Opera The NBR rarely matches Best Picture with Best Director, and even though Mike Nichols is the logical choice here, they did pick Edward Zwick for The Last Samurai last year, so I'm going out on a limb and picking Schumacher - even though they could toss in Michael Gondry for Eternal Sunshine Actual Winner: Michael Mann for Collateral In my review for Collateral, I called Mann a Director who, away from the confines of Hollywood, might someday make a masterpiece, and even though Collateral is not it, this is still good to see - even if I din't predict it Best Directorial Debut Prediction: Joshua Morston for Maria Full of Grace They could go with Terry George for Hotel Rwanda, even though this is his second film (nobody saw his first), but let's hope they play fair - Although Jared Hess for Napoleon Dynomite could slip in too Actual Winner: Zach Braff for Garden State I'm not sure why I didn't choose him myself Best Actor Prediction: Jeff Bridges in The Door in The Floor Everybody is saying Jamie Foxx (and the NBR does love multiple films) but my gut (and heart?) says go with Bridges, he may finally get his due this year, even though Foxx, Cheadle, Bardem, Neeson, Bernal or Giamatti could be there as well Actual Winner: Jamie Foxx in Ray Figured it would go this way, but I was really really rooting for Mr. Bridges - But they are honouring him with a career achievment award !!! (about time this man gets his due - the greatest natural actor working today) Best Actress Prediction: Kate Winslet in Eternal Sunshine and Finding Neverland Laura Linney could concievebly get this, but Kate seems the more NBR-ish choice - of course Julie Delpy could pull an upset (that would be fun to see) Actual Winner: Annette Bening in Being Julia I'm not doing very well here, am I !? But I do like seeing her win this. Best Supporting Actor Prediction: Alan Alda in The Aviator This is just a wild guess, although I nearly picked David Carradine (my personal choice for this category), and he, along with Clive Owen, Patrick Wilson or Rodrigo de La Serna are probably more apt guesses - Then there's always the possibility of Dustin Hoffman (three roles, and the NBR loves multiple roled victors Actual Winner: Thomas Haden Church in Sideways This was probably my furthest out prediction, so it's no surprise Best Supporting Actress Prediction: Natalie Portman in Garden State and Closer The NBR likes to award multiple performances, and since Laura Linney's two roles are split between lead and supporting, Natalie's in - But what about Virgina Madsen!? Actual Winner: Laura Linney in Kinsey No real surprise, I flipped a coin when I picked between these two anyway Best Original Screenplay: Charlie Kauffman for Eternal Sunshine Best Adapted Screenplay: Alexander Payne & Jim Taylor for Sideways If the NBR decides on just one Screenplay award, it will probably go to Sideways Actual Winners:Charlie Kauffman for Eternal Sunshine Alexander Payne & Jim Taylor for Sideways Finally, I got two right !!!!!!!!!!! Best Male Breakthrough Performance: Gael Garcia Bernal in Bad Education and The Motorcycle Diaries Best Female Breakthrough Performance: Catalina Sandino Mareno in Maria Full of Grace Okay, Gael Garcia Bernal has been a favourite Actor of mine for about four years now, but they did award these to Paul Giamatti and Charlize Theron, well after they became known, which means either Don Cheadle or Clive Owen could get this instead - as for Catalina, I am really rooting for her to get an Oscar nod this year, but let's not forget about Emmy Rossum in Phantom Actual Winners: Topher Grace (P.S. and In Good Company) & Emmy Rossum (Phantom of the Opera) Back to not doing very well again - but I do love Topher Grace (the best thing about That 70's Show) Best Ensemble: The Life Aquatic with Steve Zissou This could go to The Aviator, Phantom of The Opera, Huckabees or Closer, but I felt bad about leaving Life Aquatic out of the top ten, so here it is Actual Winner: Closer Still not doing well... Best Animated Film: The Incredibles Actual Winner: The Incredibles still not...oh wow, I got one right !!! Best Documentary: Fahrenheit 9/11 Actual Winners: 1. Born into Brothels 2. Z Channel 3. Paper Clips 4. Super Size Me 5. The Story of the Weeping Camel I think there is a Michael Moore backlash going on in some circles Special Recognition of Films that Reflect the Freedom of Expression: Fahrenheit 9/11, Hotel Rwanda, Maria Full of Grace, Moolaade, Osama A category that the NBR tosses in what they think are the most relevent socio-political films of the year Actual Winners: Fahrenheit 9/11, The Passion of The Christ, Conspiracy of Silence Special Mention for Excellence in Filmmaking: The Assassination of Richard Nixon, Dogville, Garden State, The Mother, P.S., Primer, Spartan, Vera Drake, We Don't Live Here Anymore, The Woodsman This is basically the Indie-scared-to-put-in-top-ten category - I really have no idea about this, so I just picked ten of my personal favourite smaller films of 2004 Actual Winners: The Assassination of Richard Nixon, Before Sunset, The Door in the Floor, Enduring Love, Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind, Facing Windows, Garden State, A Home at the End of the World, Imaginary Heroes, Since Otar Left, Stage Beauty, Undertow, The Woodsman Other Awards went to: House of Flying Daggers for Best Production Design Clint Eastwood for Special Filmmaking Achievment Jeff Bridges for Career Achievment Richard Schickel for Film History and Jerry Bruckheimer ?????? for Producer of the year, or some nonesense

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