2004 OSCAR NOMINATION PREDICTIONS

SCORE / SONG / SOUND / SOUND FX / VISUAL FX

FINAL PREDICTIONS - JANUARY 24, 2005 / 12 for 21 [57%]

CORRECT PREDICTION=BLUE / INCORRECT PREDICTION=RED


BEST ORIGINAL SCORE / 3 for 5 [60%]
1.
(4)(11)(18)(6)(11)
THE INCREDIBLES
2.
(2)(3)(2)(2)(4)
THE PASSION OF THE CHRIST
3.
(5)(12)(5)(10)(-)
FINDING NEVERLAND
4.
.(3)(3)(6)(4)(8)
HARRY POTTER & THE PRISONER OF AZKABAN
5.
(11)(-)(-)(-)(-)
SIDEWAYS
other possibilities:
6.(12)(-)(-)(-)(-) MILLION DOLLAR BABY
7.(6)(9)(10)(7)(6) LEMONY SNICKET'S A SERIES OF UNFORTUNATE EVENTS
8.(-)(-)(-)(-)(-) HOTEL RWANDA
9(10)(10)(11)(19)(-) THE MOTORCYCLE DIARIES
10.(8)(5)(7)(5)(2) THE POLAR EXPRESS
11.(13)(8)(8)(-)(-) HOUSE OF FLYING DAGGERS
dark horses and/or vote siphoners:
12.(7)(4)(4)(9)(10) A VERY LONG ENGAGEMENT
13.(9)(1)(1)(1)(1) ALEXANDER
14.(14)(14)(16)(-)(-) ETERNAL SUNSHINE OF THE SPOTLESS MIND
15.(15)(7)(15)(12)(15) THE TERMINAL
16.(20)(21)(13)(-)(-) THE SEA INSIDE
17.(16)(23)(20)(8)(16) STAGE BEAUTY
18.(18)(-)(-)(-)(-) SPANGLISH
Bye-bye birdie, bye-bye
RAY (17)(15)(22)(14)(-)
BIRTH (19)(19)(12)(-)(-)
CLOSER (21)(13)(17)(13)(9)
BAD EDUCATION (22)(16)(27)(23)(22)
KINSEY (23)(17)(19)(18)(18)
SPIDER-MAN 2 (24)(20)(23)(22)(7)
TROY (18)(9)(15)(13)
THE VILLAGE (22)(14)(24)(14)
KING ARTHUR (24)(21)(11)(5)

and The Aviator was found ineligible for "Original" Score:
(1)(2)(3)(3)(3) THE AVIATOR
CHRISTMAS PREDICTIONS / DECEMBER 25
THE INCREDIBLES THE PASSION OF THE CHRIST THE AVIATOR FINDING NEVERLAND HARRY POTTER & THE PRISONER OF AZKABAN
THANXGIVING PREDICTIONS / NOVEMBER 25
ALEXANDER THE PASSION OF THE CHRIST THE AVIATOR THE POLAR EXPRESS A VERY LONG ENGAGEMENT
POST-ELECTION SHOCK PREDICTIONS / NOVEMBER 7
ALEXANDER THE PASSION OF THE CHRIST THE AVIATOR FINDING NEVERLAND A VERY LONG ENGAGEMENT
OCTOBER 13 PREDICTIONS
ALEXANDER THE PASSION OF THE CHRIST THE AVIATOR THE POLAR EXPRESS HARRY POTTER & THE PRISONER OF AZKABAN
AUGUST 4 PREDICTIONS
ALEXANDER THE PASSION OF THE CHRIST THE AVIATOR THE POLAR EXPRESS KING ARTHUR

BEST ORIGINAL SONG / 2 for 5 [ughh 40%]
1.
(1)(2)(2)(3)
ALFIE
"Old Habits Die Hard"
Mick Jagger & Dave Stewart
2.
(2)(1)(1)(1)
PHANTOM OF THE OPERA
"Learn to be Lonely"
3.
(3)(4)(4)(4)
THE POLAR EXPRESS
"When Christmas Comes To Town"
or any of the other original songs
4.
(4)(5)(5)(-)
HOUSE OF FLYING DAGGERS
"Lovers"
Kathleen Battle
5.
(5)(3)(3)(-)
HOTEL RWANDA
"Million Voices"
Wyclef Jean
Other possibilities (since anything is possible in the Best Song category):
6.(6)(6)(6)(-) SHREK 2 "Accidentally in Love" by the Counting Crows
7.(9)(-)(-)(-) HARRY POTTER & THE PRISONER OF AZKABAN "Double Trouble" by John Williams
8.(10)(9)(9)(-) ETERNAL SUNSHINE OF THE SPOTLESS MIND "Strings That Tie To You" by Jon Brion
9.(7)(-)(-)(-) HOME ON THE RANGE "Will The Sun Ever Shine Again" by Bonnie Raitt or "Patch of Heaven" by KD Lang
10.(12)(10)(10)(-) THE MOTORCYCLE DIARIES - "Al otro lado del Rio" by ???
11.(8)(7)(7)(5) TROY "Remember Me" by Josh Groban & Tanja Tzarovka
12.(11)(8)(8)(-) TEAM AMERICA: WORLD POLICE - "Ronery" by Trey Parker & Matt Stone
13.(13)(11)(11)(-) MEET THE FOCKERS - "???" by Barbra Streisand
14.(14)(12)(12)(-) A DIRTY SHAME - "Let's Go Sexin'"

other possibilities are: SPIDER-MAN 2; GARDEN STATE; A LOVE SONG FOR BOBBY LONG; I HEART HUCKABEES; SPANGLISH; THE AVIATOR; LEMONY SNICKET; BRIDGET JONES; TEAM AMERICA

FINDING NEVERLAND (13)(13)(2) -Elton John's song was pulled from the final film
CHRISTMAS PREDICTIONS / DECEMBER 25
PHANTOM OF THE OPERA HOTEL RWANDA ALFIE THE POLAR EXPRESS HOUSE OF FLYING DAGGERS
THANXGIVING PREDICTIONS / NOVEMBER 25
PHANTOM OF THE OPERA HOTEL RWANDA ALFIE THE POLAR EXPRESS HOUSE OF FLYING DAGGERS
POST-ELECTION SHOCK PREDICTIONS / NOVEMBER 7
PHANTOM OF THE OPERA HOTEL RWANDA ALFIE THE POLAR EXPRESS HOUSE OF FLYING DAGGERS
OCTOBER 13 PREDICTIONS
PHANTOM OF THE OPERA FINDING NEVERLAND ALFIE THE POLAR EXPRESS TROY

BEST SOUND / 4 for 5 [80%]
1.
(1)(5)(4)(8)(7)
THE AVIATOR
2.
(2)(2)(2)(1)(1)
SPIDER-MAN 2
3.
(3)(3)(5)(5)(10)
RAY
4.
(4)(7)(6)(10)(9)
THE INCREDIBLES
5.
(5)(12)(8)(9)(8)
COLLATERAL
some alternatives:
6.(6)(4)(7)(3)(2) PHANTOM OF THE OPERA
7.(7)(1)(1)(2)(3) ALEXANDER
8.(8)(11)(15)(18)(-) HOUSE OF FLYING DAGGERS
9.(9)(17)(16)(11)(11) LEMONY SNICKET'S A SERIES OF UNFORTUNATE EVENTS
10.(14)(16)(19)(20)(18) I, ROBOT
11.(10)(6)(3)(6)(6) SKY CAPTAIN AND THE WORLD OF TOMORROW
12.(13)(15)(12)(14)(15) HARRY POTTER & THE PRISONER OF AZKABAN
13.(11)(9)(13)(16)(16) THE POLAR EXPRESS
14.(12)(14)(11)(7)(5) THE DAY AFTER TOMORROW
15.(17)(10)(14)(17)(17) THE BOURNE SUPREMACY
16.(15)(18)(9)(4)(4) THE PASSION OF THE CHRIST
17.(18)(13)(10)(12)(12) TROY
18.(16)(8)(-)(-)(-) A VERY LONG ENGAGEMENT
out of the race:
THE VILLAGE (19)(19)(17)(13)(14)
KING ARTHUR (20)(20)(18)(15)(13)
CHRISTMAS PREDICTIONS / DECEMBER 25
THE INCREDIBLES THE AVIATOR SPIDER-MAN 2 RAY COLLATERAL
MY THANXGIVING PREDICTIONS / NOVEMBER 25
ALEXANDER THE AVIATOR SPIDER-MAN 2 RAY PHANTOM OF THE OPERA
POST-ELECTION SHOCK PREDICTIONS / NOVEMBER 7
ALEXANDER THE AVIATOR SPIDER-MAN 2 RAY SKY CAPTAIN AND THE WORLD OF TOMORROW
OCTOBER 13 PREDICTIONS
ALEXANDER THE PASSION OF THE CHRIST SPIDER-MAN 2 RAY PHANTOM OF THE OPERA
AUGUST 4 PREDICTIONS
ALEXANDER THE PASSION OF THE CHRIST SPIDER-MAN 2 THE DAY AFTER TOMORROW PHANTOM OF THE OPERA

BEST SOUND EFFECTS EDITING / 2 for 3 [67%]
1.
(2)(2)(2)(2)
SPIDER-MAN 2
2.
(1)(1)(1)(1)
THE INCREDIBLES
3.
(4)(13)(12)(7)(10)
THE AVIATOR
The other four eligible films:
4.(9)(14)(16)(18)(16) COLLATERAL
5.(5)(5)(5)(4)(3) THE DAY AFTER TOMORROW
6.(10)(11)(13)(8)(7) THE POLAR EXPRESS
7.(-)(-)(-)(-)(-) RAY
films found not eligible-worthy:
THE PASSION OF THE CHRIST(6)(12)(11)(6)(6)
ALEXANDER(7)(6)(4)(5)(5)
THE BOURNE SUPREMACY(8)(4)(9)(11)(-)
I, ROBOT(11)(16)(15)(17)(9)
HARRY POTTER & THE PRISONER OF AZKABAN(12)(8)(8)(10)(13)
HOUSE OF FLYING DAGGERS(13)(10)(6)(14)(-)
PHANTOM OF THE OPERA (14)(7)(7)(12)(-)
TROY (15)(9)(10)(9)(8)
KING ARTHUR (16)(15)(14)(13)(11)
including one that I had in the running nearly the whole time so far:
SKY CAPTAIN AND THE WORLD OF TOMORROW (3)(3)(3)(3)(4)
CHRISTMAS PREDICTIONS / DECEMBER 25
THE INCREDIBLES SKY CAPTAIN AND THE WORLD OF TOMORROW SPIDER-MAN 2
THANXGIVING PREDICTIONS / NOVEMBER 25
THE INCREDIBLES SKY CAPTAIN AND THE WORLD OF TOMORROW SPIDER-MAN 2
POST-ELECTION SHOCK PREDICTIONS / NOVEMBER 7
THE INCREDIBLES SKY CAPTAIN AND THE WORLD OF TOMORROW SPIDER-MAN 2
OCTOBER 13 PREDICTIONS
THE INCREDIBLES SKY CAPTAIN AND THE WORLD OF TOMORROW SPIDER-MAN 2
AUGUST 4 PREDICTIONS
THE INCREDIBLES THE DAY AFTER TOMORROW SPIDER-MAN 2

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS / 1 for 3 [33%]
1.
(1)(2)(3)(2)
SPIDER-MAN 2
2.
(2)(1)(1)(3)
SKY CAPTAIN AND THE WORLD OF TOMORROW
3.
(6)(5)(7)(-)
LEMONY SNICKET'S A SERIES OF UNFORTUNATE EVENTS
The other four eligible films:
4.(3)(3)(2)(1) THE DAY AFTER TOMORROW
5.(4)(4)(4)(4) HARRY POTTER & THE PRISONER OF AZKABAN
6.(8)(9)(11)(5) I, ROBOT
7.(-)(-)(-)(-) THE AVIATOR
THANXGIVING PREDICTIONS / NOVEMBER 25
SKY CAPTAIN AND THE WORLD OF TOMORROW THE DAY AFTER TOMORROW SPIDER-MAN 2
POST-ELECTION SHOCK PREDICTIONS / NOVEMBER 7
SKY CAPTAIN AND THE WORLD OF TOMORROW THE DAY AFTER TOMORROW SPIDER-MAN 2
OCTOBER 13 PREDICTIONS
SKY CAPTAIN AND THE WORLD OF TOMORROW THE DAY AFTER TOMORROW SPIDER-MAN 2
AUGUST 4 PREDICTIONS
SKY CAPTAIN AND THE WORLD OF TOMORROW THE DAY AFTER TOMORROW SPIDER-MAN 2

SINCE THERE ARE JUST SEVEN ELIGIBLE FILMS IN BOTH F/X CATEGORIES
THESE FIVE ENDED UP SNUBBED BY THE ACADEMY


Other films that (I thought) had been contenders (no matter how stupid they may have been):
VAN HELSING, ALIEN VS PREDATOR, CATWOMAN, EXORCIST: THE BEGINNING, KING ARTHUR, THE VILLAGE