2004 OSCAR NOMINATION PREDICTIONS

CINEMATOGRAPHY / ART DIRECTION / EDITING / COSTUME DESIGN / MAKE-UP

FINAL PREDICTIONS / JANUARY 24, 2005 / 15 for 23 [65%]

CORRECT PREDICTION=BLUE / INCORRECT PREDICTION=RED

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY / 3 FOR 5 [60%]
1.
(1)(1)(3)(3)(1)
THE AVIATOR		 2.
(2)(3)(2)(1)(2)
THE PASSION OF THE CHRIST		 3.
(3)(7)(4)(4)(9)
RAY		 4.
(4)(-)(-)(-)(-)
MILLION DOLLAR BABY		 5.
(5)(5)(6)(5)(5)
PHANTOM OF THE OPERA
Other possibilities:
6.(6)(8)(8)(13)(24) HOUSE OF FLYING DAGGERS
7.(8)(11)(7)(23)(7) COLLATERAL
8.(9)(22)(25)(9)(17) FINDING NEVERLAND
9.(10)(2)(5)(7)(4) A VERY LONG ENGAGEMENT
10.(11)(9)(9)(8)(18) THE MOTORCYCLE DIARIES
11.(7)(6)(10)(6)(6) CLOSER
12.(18)(24)(24)(-)(-) THE SEA INSIDE
13.(12)(12)(11)(10)(10) LEMONY SNICKET'S A SERIES OF UNFORTUNATE EVENTS
14.(14)(17)(17)(26)(16) BAD EDUCATION
15.(13)(14)(15)(-)(-) VERA DRAKE
Former contenders that have fallen off the radar:
BEING JULIA (15)(21)(19)(17)(12)
ALEXANDER (16)(4)(1)(2)(3)
KINSEY (17)(10)(12)(12)(14)
HARRY POTTER & THE PRISONER OF AZKABAN (13)(13)(14)(13)
STAGE BEAUTY (15)(14)(15)(15)
THE LIFE AQUATIC (18)(22)(20)(19)
SPIDER-MAN 2 (19)(23)(21)(22)
THE VILLAGE (20)(18)(16)(8)
SKY CAPTAIN AND THE WORLD OF TOMORROW (23)(21)(19)(-)
KING ARTHUR (26)(26)(24)(25)
TROY (27)(27)(25)(21)
a pair of films that should be contenders, but are not:
BIRTH (16)(16)(-)(-)
KILL BILL, VOLUME 2 (25)(28)(22)(23)
Other films that SHOULD be here:
PRIMER; THE BROWN BUNNY; THE RETURN; TWENTY-NINE PALMS; DOGVILLE & THE TIME OF THE WOLF
CHRISTMAS PREDICTIONS / DECEMBER 25
RAY THE PASSION OF THE CHRIST THE AVIATOR MILLION DOLLAR BABY PHANTOM OF THE OPERA
MY THANXGIVING PREDICTIONS / NOVEMBER 25
ALEXANDER THE PASSION OF THE CHRIST THE AVIATOR A VERY LONG ENGAGEMENT PHANTOM OF THE OPERA
POST-ELECTION SHOCK PREDICTIONS / NOVEMBER 7
ALEXANDER THE PASSION OF THE CHRIST THE AVIATOR A VERY LONG ENGAGEMENT RAY
OCTOBER 13 PREDICTIONS
ALEXANDER THE PASSION OF THE CHRIST THE AVIATOR PHANTOM OF THE OPERA RAY
AUGUST 9 PREDICTIONS
ALEXANDER THE PASSION OF THE CHRIST THE AVIATOR PHANTOM OF THE OPERA A VERY LONG ENGAGEMENT


BEST ART DIRECTION / 4 FOR 5 [80%]
1.
(1)(1)(1)(1)(1)
THE AVIATOR		 2.
(2)(3)(4)(3)(2)
PHANTOM OF THE OPERA		 3.
(3)(8)(15)(13)(23)
HOUSE OF FLYING DAGGERS		 4.
(6)(5)(3)(4)(7)
FINDING NEVERLAND		 5.
(5)(4)(5)(8)(11)
LEMONY SNICKET
Other possibilities:
6.(4)(7)(10)(9)(12) THE TERMINAL
7.(7)(9)(14)(6)(6) THE PASSION OF THE CHRIST
8.(8)(13)(16)(20)(-) RAY
9.(9)(14)(17)(17)(-) VERA DRAKE
10.(10)(15)(7)(12)(-) BEING JULIA
11.(11)(12)(8)(19)(-) THE MOTORCYCLE DIARIES
Longshots and/or vote siphoners:
12.(12)(16)(13)(14)(16) HARRY POTTER & THE PRISONER OF AZKABAN
13.(15)(19)(24)(26)(21) BAD EDUCATION
14.(16)(18)(9)(7)(9) STAGE BEAUTY
15.(18)(11)(12)(11)(15) DE-LOVELY
16.(13)(-)(19)(8)(3) VANITY FAIR
17.(14)(6)(6)(5)(5) A VERY LONG ENGAGEMENT
18.(17)(2)(2)(2)(4) ALEXANDER
Once upon a time, I thought these might be contenders:
KINSEY (10)(11)(10)(14)
SPIDER-MAN 2 (17)(18)(18)(18)
KILL BILL, VOLUME 2 (22)(26)(23)(19)
KING ARTHUR (23)(22)(22)(10)
TROY (24)(25)(15)(8)
Great Set Decorations, but no chance in Hell:
THE LIFE AQUATIC (21)(20)(25)(20)
And does it count as Art Direction when there are no sets?:
SKY CAPTAIN & THE WORLD OF TOMORROW (20)(19)(24)(13)
What about these films that Hollywood forgot:
DOGVILLE; BIRTH; THE SADDEST MUSIC IN THE WORLD
CHRISTMAS PREDICTIONS / DECEMBER 25
HOUSE OF FLYING DAGGERS THE TERMINAL THE AVIATOR PHANTOM OF THE OPERA LEMONY SNICKET
MY THANXGIVING PREDICTIONS / NOVEMBER 25
ALEXANDER FINDING NEVERLAND THE AVIATOR PHANTOM OF THE OPERA LEMONY SNICKET
POST-ELECTION SHOCK PREDICTIONS / NOVEMBER 7
ALEXANDER FINDING NEVERLAND THE AVIATOR PHANTOM OF THE OPERA LEMONY SNICKET
OCTOBER 13 PREDICTIONS
ALEXANDER FINDING NEVERLAND THE AVIATOR PHANTOM OF THE OPERA A VERY LONG ENGAGEMENT
AUGUST 9 PREDICTIONS
ALEXANDER VANITY FAIR THE AVIATOR PHANTOM OF THE OPERA A VERY LONG ENGAGEMENT


BEST FILM EDITING / 4 for 5 [80%]
1.
(1)(1)(1)(1)(1)
THE AVIATOR		 2.
(2)(-)(-)(-)(-)
MILLION DOLLAR BABY		 3.
(3)(6)(5)(8)(11)
SPIDER-MAN 2		 4.
(4)(5)(4)(10)(5)
RAY		 5.
(5)(16)11)(6)(2)
COLLATERAL
Other Possibilities:
6.(6)(-)(-)(-)(-) SIDEWAYS
7.(7)(2)(2)(3)(3) CLOSER
8.(-)(-)(-)(-)(-) HOTEL RWANDA
9.(8)(7)(10)(11)(15) ETERNAL SUNSHINE OF THE SPOTLESS MIND
10.(9)(10)(8)(2)(4) THE PASSION OF THE CHRIST
11.(10)(11)(12)(16)(-) HOUSE OF FLYING DAGGERS
12.(11)(4)(6)(9)(6) PHANTOM OF THE OPERA
13.(12)(15)(18)(22)(23) LEMONY SNICKET'S A SERIES OF UNFORTUNATE EVENTS
14.(13)(9)(7)(5)(13) THE MOTORCYCLE DIARIES
Dark Horses and/or Vote Siphoners:
15.(14)(14)(17)(-)(-) THE INCREDIBLES
16.(15)(18)(13)(18)(24) HARRY POTTER & THE PRISONER OF AZKABAN
17.(18)(8)(9)(4)(7) KINSEY
18.(19)(12)(16)(13)(9) A VERY LONG ENGAGEMENT
19.(20)(17)(17)(16)(-) BAD EDUCATION
20.(16)(23)(26)(17)(-) KILL BILL, VOLUME 2
The Fat Lady done sangeth:
ALEXANDER (17)(3)(3)(7)(8)
THE POLAR EXPRESS(13)(14)(-)(-)
VERA DRAKE(19)(15)(12)(-)
SKY CAPTAIN & THE WORLD OF TOMORROW(20)(20)(29)(18)
THE VILLAGE(21)(28)(12)(-)
THE LIFE AQUATIC(22)(23)(14)(-)
KING ARTHUR(24)(19)(21)(22)
TROY(25)(21)(19)(19)
CHRISTMAS PREDICTIONS / DECEMBER 25
SPIDER-MAN 2 MILLION DOLLAR BABY THE AVIATOR COLLATERAL RAY
THANXGIVING PREDICTIONS / NOVEMBER 25
CLOSER ALEXANDER THE AVIATOR PHANTOM OF THE OPERA RAY
POST-ELECTION SHOCK PREDICTIONS / NOVEMBER 7
CLOSER ALEXANDER THE AVIATOR SPIDER-MAN 2 RAY
OCTOBER 13 PREDICTIONS
CLOSER THE PASSION OF THE CHRIST THE AVIATOR KINSEY THE MOTORCYCLE DIARIES
AUGUST 9 PREDICTIONS
CLOSER THE PASSION OF THE CHRIST THE AVIATOR COLLATERAL RAY


BEST COSTUME DESIGN / 2 for 5 [40%]
1.
(1)(2)(2)(1)(1)
THE AVIATOR		 2.
(2)(3)(3)(2)(11)
HOUSE OF FLYING DAGGERS		 3.
(3)(1)(1)(3)(2)
PHANTOM OF THE OPERA		 4.
(4)(4)(4)(5)(3)
LEMONY SNICKET'S A SERIES OF UNFORTUNATE EVENTS		 5.
(5)(8)(8)(10)(17)
BEING JULIA
Other possibilities:
6.(8)(7)(6)(7)(9) FINDING NEVERLAND
7.(6)(5)(5)(4)(6) ALEXANDER
8.(7)(10)(10)(6)(5) PASSION OF THE CHRIST
9.(10)(12)(16)(13)(18) RAY
10.(11)(13)(19)(20)(-) VERA DRAKE
11.(9)(16)(12)(9)(4) VANITY FAIR
Dark Horses & Vote Siphoners:
12.(13)(14)(11)(8)(13) STAGE BEAUTY
13.(14)(15)(11)(11)(10) DE-LOVELY
14.(16)(9)(9)(16)(21) THE MOTORCYCLE DIARIES
15.(12)(6)(7)(17)(12) A VERY LONG ENAGEMENT
16.(17)(11)(15)(12)(14) KINSEY
17.(15)(17)(13)(8)(8) SPIDER-MAN 2
Films that have fallen beyond the realm of chance:
KING ARTHUR (20)(18)(14)(7)
THE VILLAGE (21)(23)(19)(15)
THE LIFE AQUATIC (23)(25)(25)(20)
TROY (24)(22)(15)(16)
Some films with much deserving designs, but alas, they will not get nominated:
SKY CAPTAIN & THE WORLD OF TOMORROW (18)(17)(23)(19)
BAD EDUCATION (19)(20)(21)(23)
KILL BILL, VOLUME 2 (22)(24)(24)(22)
CHRISTMAS PREDICTIONS / DECEMBER 25
LEMONY SNICKET BEING JULIA THE AVIATOR PHANTOM OF THE OPERA HOUSE OF FLYING DAGGERS
MY THANXGIVING PREDICTIONS / NOVEMBER 25
LEMONY SNICKET ALEXANDER THE AVIATOR PHANTOM OF THE OPERA HOUSE OF FLYING DAGGERS
POST-ELECTION SHOCK PREDICTIONS / NOVEMBER 7
LEMONY SNICKET ALEXANDER THE AVIATOR PHANTOM OF THE OPERA HOUSE OF FLYING DAGGERS
OCTOBER 13 PREDICTIONS
LEMONY SNICKET ALEXANDER THE AVIATOR PHANTOM OF THE OPERA HOUSE OF FLYING DAGGERS
AUGUST 9 PREDICTIONS
LEMONY SNICKET THE PASSION OF THE CHRIST THE AVIATOR PHANTOM OF THE OPERA VANITY FAIR


BEST MAKE-UP / 2 for 3 [67%]
1.
(1)(1)(1)(1)(2)
LEMONY SNICKET		 2.
(2)(3)(2)(2)(1)
THE PASSION OF THE CHRIST		 3.
(13)(-)(-)(-)(-)
HELLBOY
You never know what weird choices will be made eligible for the Make-Up category (Monster was NOT a finalist last year, even though the make-up department were the only ones doing a good job on that overwrought and overhyped little junk piece) - so who the hell knows...

we know !!
the other two eligible films (just five!?):
4.(4)(4)(5)(6)(6) THE AVIATOR
5.(-)(-)(-)(-)(-) DAWN OF THE DEAD
This could mean only two nominees total...
I had them on my list, but they are not eligible:
PHANTOM OF THE OPERA (3)(2)(6)(5)(3)
KINSEY (5)(5)(3)(3)(16)
RAY (6)(9)(9)(10)(11)
HARRY POTTER & THE PRISONER OF AZKABAN (7)(10)(10)(8)(14)
DE-LOVELY (8)(12)(11)(13)(5)
STAGE BEAUTY (9)(13)(8)(9)(9)
VANITY FAIR (10)(16)(14)(15)(8)
THE SEA INSIDE (11)(-)(-)(-)(-) --- But this ended up being nominated?!?
ALEXANDER (12)(6)(4)(4)(4)
A VERY LONG ENGAGEMENT (14)(7)(13)(12)(15)
FINDING NEVERLAND (15)(8)(7)(7)(13)
BAD EDUCATION (16)(11)(16)(16)(10)
KING ARTHUR (18)(14)(15)(14)(7)
TROY (19)(15)(12)(11)(12)
MY CHRISTMAS PREDICTIONS / DECEMBER 25
LEMONY SNICKET THE PASSION OF THE CHRIST PHANTOM OF THE OPERA
MY THANXGIVING PREDICTIONS / NOVEMBER 25
LEMONY SNICKET THE PASSION OF THE CHRIST KINSEY
POST-ELECTION SHOCK PREDICTIONS / NOVEMBER 7
LEMONY SNICKET THE PASSION OF THE CHRIST KINSEY
OCTOBER 13 PREDICTIONS
LEMONY SNICKET THE PASSION OF THE CHRIST PHANTOM OF THE OPERA
AUGUST 9 PREDICTIONS
LEMONY SNICKET THE PASSION OF THE CHRIST PHANTOM OF THE OPERA

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